Timothy Peterson Says 90% Probability Of BTC Never Going Under $11K Again

Timothy Peterson stands as the Global Macro Manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, and is the author of the valuation model for Bitcoin, based on Metcalfe’s Law. In a recent series of tweets, Peterson speculated that Bitcoin would be valued at around $12,000 by November’s end, with the price reaching $1 million per BTC within the time of a decade.

“Last Time To Buy BTC At X Price”

This twitter thread was published on the 11th of October, with Peterson stating that Bitcoin has a 90% probability of never again going below $11,000 in value.

6/10 On November 30th, 2020, #Bitcoin's price will be at or above $12,000 (90% probability). Write it down, screenshot it, whatever. I don't care if you believe me or not. pic.twitter.com/EpmDdAPu2T

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 11, 2020

The man himself is deadly serious, but this prediction has been made so many times that it’s become a meme at this point, as the prediction gets proven wrong time and time again.

This time, Peterson has more than just pure hype on his side. The analyst claims that his prediction model, which he developed back in 2017, has been accurate, more or less, throughout this entire time. Peterson claimed that the model has managed to successfully predict the end-year prices of cryptocurrencies for the past two years, now.

Substance To These Claims

A prime example of this would be in 2018, when he predicted a price of $3,500. The actual price for the end of 2018, the 31st of December, was set at $3,782 per BTC, which is a difference of 7%. Alongside this, Peter had predicted a mid-range estimate for the end of 2019, believing the price would hold a value of $7,000. Bitcoin’s recorded price on the last day of 2018 was set at $7,243.

Using these same methods, the analyst gave a bold claim of the Bitcoin being worth $100,000 by the start of 2024, with a $1 million price prediction for March of 2028.  The man, ever-cheeky, has opted to issue out an extremely specific prediction for November’s end. Peterson is convinced that the Bitcoin would be valued at or above $12,000, with a 90% probability of it happening.

6/10 On November 30th, 2020, #Bitcoin's price will be at or above $12,000 (90% probability). Write it down, screenshot it, whatever. I don't care if you believe me or not. pic.twitter.com/EpmDdAPu2T

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 11, 2020

The Best Ideas Tend To Be Fundamentally Simple

Peterson had a rather simple, if extremely complexly executed idea: Measure the demand for BTC by the number of wallets holding it. Alongside the supply, easily determined to be over $18.5 million at this point, Peterson has developed a price model, basing it on Metcalfe’s Law. Metcalfe’s Law mandates that a communications network’s value is in proportion to the square of the number of users within in, in this case, those holding coins on the blockchain itself. Defending his model, Peterson described this Law as factual, as real as E=mc2 and gravity.