Ethereum vs Bitcoin: What's Going on?

Ethereum vs Bitcoin: What’s Going on?

Updated: 15 October 2023

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Recently, the cryptocurrency landscape has witnessed varied investment behaviors between significant Bitcoin and Ethereum holders. This has prompted a series of speculations and discussions among crypto enthusiasts and experts.

While Bitcoin moguls, those with 1,000 or more BTC, have generally maintained their portfolios, there have been instances of sharp decreases, potentially attributed to events like the FTX debacle or capitalizing on the bullish trend of 2021. Ethereum magnates, in contrast, have been offloading their holdings, with those holding 1,000 or more ETH experiencing a notable downtrend since 2020.

Amidst these observations, many influential voices from the Bitcoin community took the stage to critique Ethereum and its community. Steven Lubka from Bitcoin-based financial service, Swan, shed light on a trend: several affluent individuals contemplating a shift from ETH to BTC. This inclination, he argued, is driven by the mounting regulatory pressures facing Ethereum, an issue Bitcoin remains relatively insulated from.

Complementing this, Jesse Shrader of the Lightning Network’s data analytics firm, Amboss, emphasized Bitcoin’s primary purpose as an enhanced monetary system. Meanwhile, he contended that Ethereum, with its intricate layers, could be ensnared by its own complexities, especially concerning smart contracts and significant protocol revisions.

Yet, some argue that the metrics cited may not encompass the entire story. Kunal Goel, representing Messari, questioned whether Glassnode’s data had been calibrated to account for staking. He clarified that on-chain data might misconstrue moving assets into a staking contract as selling, although in reality, it isn’t. As Ethereum mandates locking 32 ETH in a contract to aid in transaction verification, this could be a significant factor behind the observed decline in holdings by large-scale stakeholders.

André Dragosch of Deutsche Digital Assets (DDA) fortified this viewpoint, addressing the surge in ETH’s allocation in smart contracts. He underscored Glassnode’s omission in accounting for Ethereum within smart contracts, highlighting that the ETH percentage retained by the top addresses hasn’t dwindled.

In essence, the preliminary data might seem to favor one narrative, but on closer examination, it’s evident that Bitcoin and Ethereum stalwarts remain largely confident in their respective digital assets.

Benjamin Cohen’s View

Benjamin Cowen, from the popular channel “Into the CryptoVerse”, agrees that Ethereum’s performance has been a topic of concern for some, especially when compared to Bitcoin’s robust status. Historically, Bitcoin has been around longer than Ethereum and has consistently maintained a higher market cap. This longevity and its unchanged protocol make Bitcoin a less risky bet compared to Ethereum, which has seen significant changes in its ecosystem recently. Ethereum’s valuation compared to Bitcoin has been dropping, suggesting a lack of confidence among some investors.

Cohen is pointing that the changing dynamics between Ethereum and Bitcoin are evident in the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin valuation chart, which has shown a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This trend indicates that Ethereum has been underperforming when pitted against Bitcoin.

The Deflationary Narrative

One of Ethereum’s primary selling points has been its deflationary nature due to the EIP-1559 upgrade, which was supposed to make ETH more scarce by burning a portion of fees. However, Cohen points out that this narrative has been upended recently: the supply of ETH has been on the rise, which means it’s no longer in a deflationary state. This shift could be attributed to less activity on the Ethereum blockchain and, consequently, fewer transactions and lower fee burns.

The Ethereum Dominance

Ethereum’s dominance in the crypto market has been waning. From 2019 to 2023, the Ethereum dominance has seen significant decreases, suggesting that other coins might be overtaking its position. Conversely, Bitcoin’s dominance has been bullish, maintaining above its bull market support band for the year, hinting at its strong position in the market.

Outlook for Ethereum

Cohen argues that while the Ethereum-USD value might seem like a bright spot for some, it doesn’t necessarily spell a positive narrative for Ethereum. Even if Bitcoin rallies and brings Ethereum’s USD value up momentarily, the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin valuation might still suffer, leading to Ethereum’s further weakening.