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Bitcoin Price is up 50% Since Paul Graham’s ‘Systemic Risk’ Crypto Prediction

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The entire crypto industry has been gaining momentum over the past few days, which has created a bullish sentiment throughout the market. Altcoins have gained quite an increase in prices, which is currently fueling confidence in investors. However, multiple developments on a macroeconomic scale make it difficult to speculate the potential move of the industry with accuracy. This has put a significant strain on investors and is visible on social media platforms where multiple analysts seem to be sharing their opinions which contradict each others’.

One such popular individual who had recently stated his opinion on the current status of the crypto industry, or Bitcoin in an overall sense was Paul Graham. The individual took to Twitter to express his concerns about the next move in the industry and claimed that he felt that a bear market for cryptocurrencies could be brewing. However, the industry has since moved quite differently, which ended up in Paul gaining some criticism.

Current Market Condition

The crypto industry has been on an uptrend since the start of 2023. The frontrunner crypto BTC has been seeing an upper movement since the beginning of January, which has been constant up until now. The total valuation of the entire crypto industry currently stands at above $1 trillion, which indicates the amount of growth the sector has had as a whole since the same market cap was less than $800 billion on the 1st of January.

Bitcoin has had a steady bullish run too, as mentioned above. While the crypto was trading in the $16,800 range till 10th January, it shot up in value within the following 20 days, which has brought its price to the $23,000- $24,000 level. One thing to note is that the industry in the meantime has been hit with several headlines, which should ideally hold the capacity to steer the prices of tokens in a positive as well as in a negative way. This implies that the price of BTC has more or less been moving upward irrespective of any minor external factors, which is something that could considerably affect its price previously.

As such, the industry has surely been showing signs of a bullish market for several days now. While it may still be too early to expect the entirety of the market to shoot up to its highest levels like they were back in 2021, several analysts offered bullish predictions. Naturally, this was met with contradictory views too. Paul Graham, whom we shall talk about further in the article was one of those who expected and expressed a potential drop in crypto prices.

“The Crypto Industry will Shortly Experience a Systemic Risk”

A stream of opinions was what Paul Graham was met with once he tweeted that he had received some kind of intel from a trusted source about a potential market crash. Naturally, there were many parties who sided with him and stated that the industry was likely to go further below in the upcoming months. His tweet was posted in November 2022, when BTC was trading in the $16,000 range. However, since then, the market has surprisingly only kept moving in a continuous uptrend and is now crossed the $23,000 barrier.

Investors usually look up to such personalities and their take opinions seriously, which is why the tweet saw high traction since the day it was posted. However, over two months after, the price of BTC, unlike what Paul speculated is trading at 50% higher than what it was worth in November. Paul had also reiterated in a following tweet that while the source was a trusted party, the details he had on the mentioned “systemic risk” were extremely limited.

Who is Paul Graham?

Ideally, investors keep an eye out for personalities who could potentially have a hold or a background within the crypto industry or finance in general. Paul Graham is a computer scientist, entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and author. He has been known to meddle and provide regular inputs on various social developments and financial movements. He became a popular name after co-founding the startup accelerator Y-Combinator.

The Vitalik and Paul Banter

Shortly after Paul’s tweet went viral, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin tweeted “I’m hearing through the grapevine that something important is about to happen. Please recognize the fact that my elite social connections to people who are early to know things make me cool, and please help me validate my self-image of coolness”. Paul Graham was quick to respond to this and claimed that he had merely passed on the message from the aforementioned source since they had asked him to and that Vitalik’s comment was rude.

This, however, ended up in Vitalik clearing his thoughts in a much more detailed manner. He followed the tweet with a stream of other notes where he mentioned that his initial comment was not directed at him directly. It was infact, a callout to a huge group of so-called “finance gurus” who come up with “trust me” claims that end up in rumour trading becoming a big problem that disrupts the organic market movement. He ended his thread claiming that he didn’t think that Paul Graham was a part of the crypto finance culture that does the “toxic intentional manipulating and engagement farming stuff”.

Will Paul Graham’s Prediction Actualize?

The tweet from Paul came at a time when the market was already at a low point. It had been consolidating for a while and had just recovered from the FTX fiasco’s effects. However, it may not be wise to completely ignore the fact that multiple factors could instantly stunt the growth being seen in the market currently. As a timeframe for his alleged “systemic risk” which implies a crash wasn’t mentioned, it may be possible that the speculated crash may even happen within the next couple of months.


It is impossible to accurately get a reading on the potential price movement that BTC or the crypto industry as a whole would make. However, investors can always consider reducing their risk exposure in the crypto industry by parking their funds in excellent projects and keeping away from volatile cryptos. Either way, it may be a while before a better idea of the crypto industry’s further development becomes clearer.

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