US Influencers Promote Betting on Polymarket Despite Restrictions

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, is actively engaging US-based social media influencers to promote election betting. Despite federal restrictions prohibiting Americans from placing bets on the platform, Polymarket continues its marketing push. Influencers on social media platforms, including Instagram, have been sharing posts marked with hashtags like #PMPartner and #PolymarketPartner, as noted in a report. This highlights Polymarket’s persistent attempts to attract users and increase engagement.

In September, Armand Saramout, who serves as Polymarket’s Senior Director of Growth, initiated conversations with prominent influencers to explore potential sponsorships. Influencers such as Xavi Fahard, who operates the @sarcasm_only account with a follower base exceeding 16 million, have agreed to multi-post partnerships. Fahard mentioned that, while sponsored posts typically see lower interaction rates compared to organic content, Polymarket’s advertisements performed comparably to other sponsored campaigns in terms of engagement metrics.

The campaign has also drawn participation from influencers like Eric Pan, known as @ericnomics, and popular meme-focused accounts such as @moist and @hoodclips. Their posts showing Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in presidential polls. Despite this promotional activity, Polymarket maintains that its primary goal is not to drive US-based trades but to generate awareness and guide users to explore their platform.

About Polymarket

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcomes of various events, including political contests. While its main focus is on creating a marketplace for information, Polymarket has gained significant attention due to its involvement in political betting, particularly in the United States. Despite regulatory restrictions, Polymarket has leveraged influencer marketing and online promotions to attract users interested in predicting election outcomes. The platform positions itself as a tool to provide real-time insights into political sentiment, which, in theory, can reflect collective public expectations better than traditional polling methods.

Political betting on Polymarket has sparked debate, with proponents arguing that prediction markets can offer more accurate forecasts by tapping into participants’ “skin in the game” approach. Unlike traditional polls, prediction markets aggregate individual bets based on users’ expectations, often resulting in more dynamic and potentially more reliable outcomes. This is due in part to the market’s ability to quickly reflect breaking news, changing sentiments, and a range of user inputs. As a result, many users have come to view Polymarket’s predictions as a barometer of public sentiment during major elections.

Historically, Polymarket’s track record for accuracy has been mixed but noteworthy. During significant political events such as the U.S. presidential elections, Polymarket’s market predictions have occasionally outperformed traditional polls by capturing unexpected shifts in voter sentiment. However, the platform’s predictive power is not infallible, and like any market-driven mechanism, it can be influenced by the biases and motivations of participants. This can lead to instances where the predictions deviate from actual outcomes, highlighting both the strengths and limitations of using betting markets for forecasting complex political events.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Challenges for Polymarket Amid Influencer Campaigns

Polymarket has encountered significant regulatory challenges, including a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating without the required licenses. Following this settlement, the platform ceased serving US-based traders, although some Americans reportedly bypass restrictions by using VPNs. While Polymarket asserts that the majority—99%—of its users access the platform solely for reading news without trading, its influencer-driven promotions appear to focus on expanding its reach to a US audience.

The platform faced increased scrutiny when a trader placed a sizable $26 million bet on Donald Trump. Polymarket’s investigation into this incident concluded that the trader’s behavior stemmed from personal convictions rather than an attempt to manipulate market outcomes.

In addition to its influencer partnerships, Polymarket’s parent company, Blockratize, invested close to $270,000 in election-related advertisements on Facebook and Instagram targeting US users in the lead-up to the election. These advertisements often depicted Trump leading and sought to influence viewers by emphasizing market predictions over traditional polling data. This promotional content, favoring Trump, has prompted questions regarding Polymarket’s impartiality and its strategy to appeal to Trump supporters.

The company’s decision to prominently showcase Trump, more so than Kamala Harris, has fueled speculation about its potential political biases. This raises broader concerns about the ethics and implications of betting on political events. As Polymarket grapples with legal challenges and works to maintain its public image, scrutiny from various quarters remains heightened.

Predicting Trump’s Win

In the months leading up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Polymarket reflected a dynamic shift in public sentiment. Initially, the platform’s markets favored Vice President Kamala Harris, with her odds of winning surpassing 60% in early September. However, as the campaign progressed, former President Donald Trump’s probabilities began to rise, influenced by various factors including debates, campaign events, and emerging polling data. By late October, Trump’s odds had increased significantly, reaching approximately 70% on Polymarket.

On Election Day, as real-time vote counts indicated Trump’s lead in key battleground states, Polymarket’s markets responded swiftly. Traders, reacting to the unfolding results, drove Trump’s odds to over 99% on the platform, effectively signaling a market consensus on his impending victory. This rapid adjustment underscores the responsiveness of prediction markets to live events and their ability to aggregate collective expectations in real time.

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