Kamala Harris Narrows Gap With Donald Trump On Polymarket Ahead Of US Election

Updated: 04 November 2024

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Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has narrowed a yawning gap against Donald Trump in Polymarket odds ahead of the US election tomorrow.

The odds for Harris have surged to 42% from 33% just four days ago, while Trumps now stands at about 58%, down from 67% on Oct. 30.

Kamala Harris' odds continue to rise.

🟥 Trump • 54.8% chance
🟦 Harris • 45.1% chance

1 day to go. pic.twitter.com/9RVNdokbyH

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 3, 2024

Kamala Harris Gains Ground, But Trump Maintains Strong Swing State Advantage

Despite Harris’s ascent, Trump remains comfortably ahead and is also favorite to win in most swing states, with current odds of 76% in Arizona, 64% in Georgia, 59% in Nevada, and 54% in Pennsylvania.

In contrast, Polymarket bettors expect Harris to win in Wisconsin and Michigan, and she is favored to secure the popular vote with odds of 73% compared to Trump’s 27%.

Latest Swing State Odds (% chance of winning)

🟥 Arizona • Trump 76% – Harris 24%
🟥 Georgia • Trump 64% – Harris 36%
🟥 Nevada • Trump 59% – Harris 41%
🟥 Pennsylvania • Trump 54% – Harris 46%
🟦 Wisconsin • Harris 58% – Trump 42%
🟦 Michigan • Harris 59% – Trump 41% pic.twitter.com/ol96h8NMAP

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 4, 2024

Despite the apparent momentum behind Harris, some market analysts suggest that the increase in her odds mostly reflects hedging by traders who have also placed bets on a Trump victory.

PolitiFi Meme Coins Surge

The PolitiFi meme coin market surged 8.3% in the past 24 hours to reach a market capitalization of $704 million.

Meme coins associated with Donald Trump soared, led by a 126% leap by standout performer Pepe (TRUMP). TrumpCoin (DJT), Super Trump (STRUMP), and MAGA Hat (MAGA) also saw substantial gains, rising by 98%, 46%, and 32%, respectively.

PolitiFi meme coins in presale are also doing well. The satirical FreeDum Fighters (DUM) meme coin has raised over $417,000 in a little over two weeks, with its holders voting 68% to 32% in favor of Trump as they take home annual staking yields of up to 774%.