Grayscale GBTC Discount Drops To Lowest Level In Nearly Two Years Amid Optimism On Bitcoin ETF Approval

Updated: 06 June 2024

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The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has fallen to its lowest level in 22 months as crypto traders become optimistic about approving the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.

On October 13, GBTC’s discount to Bitcoin’s net asset value dropped to 16%, according to YCharts data. The data shows a gradual narrowing of this discount in recent months.

THE GBTC DISCOUNT HAS NARROWED TO 16% AS THE MARKET BETS ON A BITCOIN SPOT ETF APPROVAL.

Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust, commonly known as GBTC, has experienced notable changes in its market dynamics. At the start of this year, GBTC was trading at a significant discount of 48.31%… pic.twitter.com/2nWLmvnewb

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) October 13, 2023

As of December last year, at the height of the bear market, GBTC’s discount was at 50%. A significant drop was seen in mid-June after BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF application. At the time, the discount narrowed from 44% to 27% by July 5.

Crypto Twitter is speculating about the impact of an approval. One crypto analyst opined that the GBTC discount “should evaporate over the next week or two.”

Bitcoin ETF Approval Is A “Done Deal” With Grayscale Win Reaffirmed

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not appeal the court’s landmark ruling on Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF application. In August, a US court vacated the SEC’s decision to reject Grayscale’s filing to convert GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF.

The SEC’s failure to appeal has triggered speculation about a potential approval. Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, James Seyffart, referred to the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF as a “done deal.”

1. Done deal I guess if this is accurate. No en banc application

2. No. I do not think they will appeal to the Supreme Court either.

3. Dialogue between Grayscale and SEC should begin next week. Hoping for more info on next steps sometime next week or week after? https://t.co/2EayzqeKGq

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 13, 2023

Grayscale also appears ready to issue its ETF once it gets the green light from the SEC. The digital asset manager noted that after the lapse of the SEC’s 45-day period to seek an appeal, the court will deliver a final mandate within seven days.

Grayscale said it “remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval.”

🚨NEW: Statement from @Grayscale on the @SECGov’s decision to not seek a rehearing:

“The Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure’s 45-day period to seek rehearing has now passed. The Court will now issue its final mandate within seven calendar days. The Grayscale team remains…

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) October 15, 2023

The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could bring major net inflows into the crypto market. However, the recent monthly outlook by Coinbase Institutional says the inflows will materialize over time. The report also notes that the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is already partially priced in.

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