Ethereum Soars 18% As Bloomberg Ups The Odds Of SEC Approving Ethereum ETFs To 75%

Updated: 21 May 2024

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Ethereum surged almost 18% as Bloomberg analysts and Polymarket sharply upped the odds of spot Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds) being approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this month.

Hopes of an approval surged after the SEC asked exchange applicants to update their so-called 19b-4 filings on an accelerated basis, according to a report by CoinDesk that cited three people familiar with the matter.

“James Seyffart and I are increasing our odds of spot ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), “ Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a May 20 X post. This follows “chatter” Balchunas heard yesterday afternoon that might suggest the “SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue),” he added.

A Polymarket contract asking whether Ethereum ETFs will be approved by May 31 also jumped from 10 cents to 59 cents, representing a 59% chance of these investment products being approved by the end of the month. Meanwhile, another contract asking if ETH ETFs will be approved by Jun. 30 is trading at 69 cents.

Ethereum traded at $3,654 as of 4.36 a.m. EST after surging 17.8% in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum ETFs: Is Politics A New Factor?

CoinDesk reported that exchanges that would list and trade ETH ETFS were suddenly asked by the SEC to update their 19b-4 filings, a development it said suggested the regulator might be preparing to approve applications ahead of Thursday, when it’s expected to decide on an application to launch an Ethereuem ETF by fund manager VanEck.

Although this development is considered a positive development towards ETH ETF approvals, the SEC could still reject or delay them.

“It appears as though some of the politics of this may have changed rapidly,” Balchunas told The Block. He added that crypto seems to be becoming a more politicized issue ahead of the upcoming presidential election.

This theory is backed by a statement made by former US President Donald Trump at a wine and dine event for investors of his NFT collection. Trump said that he is a friendlier candidate to the crypto industry, and revealed that he accepts campaign donations in digital currencies.

Current US President Joe Biden and his administration have developed an anti-crypto reputation. This is mainly due to the regulation by enforcement approach employed by SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

Many believed that the SEC under Gensler would reject Ethereum ETF applications given his battle against the crypto sector.

Things are taking a turn for the better on Spot #ethereum ETF approvals this week. Upping our odds to 75%. https://t.co/3WJ8kx9d8k

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) May 20, 2024

That viewpoint is now being reassessed as market optimism is buoyed by the new developments. The overall market cap of the crypto industry soared almost 8% to $2.61 trillion in the past 24 hours, while the meme coin sector bettered that by half a percentage point to reach a market cap of $57.8 billion.

Crypto ICOs are performing strongly as well, with some analysts recommending allocating funds to red-hot new meme coin presales including Dogeverse (DOGEVERSE) and Sealana (SEAL).