Ethereum ETF Decision Takes Center Stage This Week After ETH Legal Boost And More Upbeat Coinbase

Updated: 20 May 2024

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The crypto community is waiting in anticipation on whether spot Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds) will be approved or denied by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 23.

While Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says the chances of approval are ”slim to none,” and Polymarket puts the odds at 16%, Coinbase estimates there is a 30% to 40% chance of approval by the end of the month.

“The market may be underestimating the timing and odds of a potential approval, which leaves room for surprises to the upside,” said analyst David Han in a May 15 note. ”There is room for surprise to the upside on this decision.”

Han’s optimism is in part due to the increasing role that crypto is playing in presidential election campaigns, with Republican candidate Donald Trump warming up to digital assets.

“It’s also less certain in our view that the SEC would be willing to front the political capital necessary to support a denial,” Han said.

While BTC has been grabbing the headlines this year, we think ETH has the potential to outperform in the second half. Learn why in our new Outlook.https://t.co/pNVZFQIb8o pic.twitter.com/cTaoMhkII0

— Coinbase Institutional 🛡️ (@CoinbaseInsto) May 17, 2024

Ethereum ETFs Bolstered By Legal Case

A US Department of Justice indictment on May 15 that accused two individuals of wire fraud and money laundering by manipulating the Ethereum blockchain also is positive news for the prospects of eventual ETH ETF approvals.

The indictment emphasized the importance of network integrity, stating that Ethereum operates without a central authority or trusted intermediary, reaffirming the decentralized principles of the blockchain and making it less likely that the SEC can classify ETH as a security that is under its jurisdiction.

“This is inconsistent with ETH being a security as there would be no *management or entrepreneurial* efforts of others, ” Lexproof founder and CEO Orlando Cosme said in a May 16 X post.

These developments helped the ETH price surge over 5% on May 17 to near $3,100 for the first time in 10 days.

The Emperor has no clothes.

The SEC is believed to be taking the position that ETH is a security.

Meanwhile, federal prosecutors at SDNY, who are representing the “United States,” have just alleged that Ethereum is “a decentralized blockchain” with “No central actor” who “runs… https://t.co/isIP4sV43I pic.twitter.com/pe8BdfBtut

— orlando.btc (@Orlando_btc) May 16, 2024