Does Crypto Gambling Explain Bitcoin Price Changes?

Bitcoin has recently managed to reach an all-time high as the cryptocurrency hit the $52,000 mark, but has crypto gambling had an impact on helping it to reach that level or has it just simply been able to do so because of various other factors?

A study by Thomas Conlon and Richard McGee in 2020 looked into that very question and although it might be slightly old, there is evidence to suggest that whilst there was a telling impact in the early days of the crypto, it has since tailed off.

Of course, the study could be considered a little old as both industries have experienced significant booms since it was conducted and it is hard to not believe that the two have had a helping hand with each other as the two industries have become rather intertwined with each other.

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Conlon & McGee study provides interesting observations

The study by Conlon and McGee started off by looking at a crypto casino that had already been established at the time, with the authors having been able to get their data from the publicly available blockchain that has a record of every Bitcoin transaction that had taken place since 2009 when it was first introduced.

Lucky Bit gaming wallets were the focus of the study as they had the most transactions on the blockchain at the time, and they found that between October 2013 and September 2018 (the data they had available) that there were peaks and troughs in regards to how crypto had impacted on the gambling industry.

They found that 32% of the changes in Bitcoin price could be explained by the effect that lottery-like payoffs via the form of gambling had had on the crypto between October 2013 and March 2016, however the results between April 2016 and September 2018 had shown a regression instead.

Furthermore, the authors of the study also found that the percentage of holders making Bitcoin transactions for gambling related activities had also dropped after they compared it to the transactions that had been made in the LuckyBit gaming application.

They highlighted that it suggested that the proportion of gamblers who were using Bitcoin had started to decline as the market had continued to evolve, although it was also something that happened at the same time as lottery demand decoupled from the movements of the crypto price.

Impossible not to say Crypto Gambling did not have an impact

With the benefits that virtual currencies provide, it also makes a lot of sense why there would be some suggestion that they have had an impact on the price changes that Bitcoin has gone through its life time, with features such as decentralisation, anonymity and tighter levels of security and privacy just a few of those advantages being felt by both the iGaming company and the coin holder.

However, there has also been evidence of price increases and decreases of various crypto to have happened because of the words and actions that influential figures within the world and those that are positioned prominently in the industry have done in the past.

Conclusion

To conclude, there is every chance that the gambling industry is having an impact on the price of Bitcoin, although it is hard to suggest that it is having a huge impact as there are various other factors that must be considered. The sample taken from the study by Conlon and McGee shows that there was an effect in the early half of the crypto’s existence, but that soon dropped off and completely disappeared.