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Bitcoin Fluffs its Safe Haven Test

Mike Novogratz Believes This is Bitcoin’s “Moment”
Mike Novogratz Believes This is Bitcoin’s “Moment”

The last six weeks have seen financial markets around the globe thrown into a state of chaos not seen since 2008, with prices plummeting as investors rush to exit markets at an unprecedented rate. The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global trade and growth has seen various financial markets hit multi-month and multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin (BTC), were supposed to offer a safe-haven against traditional assets and currencies. But they have failed, and badly.

Bitcoin price

The Dow Jones peaked on February 13 this year around 29,600 before it crumbled to 18,170, in a matter of a couple of weeks, a fall of 38%. The latest rebound now has the Dow Jones at 22,445, a fall of 24% from its high. Over the same time frame, Bitcoin (BTC) fell from $10,500 to $3,910 high to low, a drop of 62%. Bitcoin now trades at $6,400, a fall of 39% from its high, markedly worse than the Dow. Gold over the same time frame is up nearly 2% since mid-February, while the value of the US dollar – using the dollar basket (DXY) – is relatively unchanged.

Safe-haven test

While Bitcoin Revolution traders and investors will use different timeframes to show BTC in a better light, in the darkest time that financial markets have seen in decades, Bitcoin’s supposed use as an anti-fiat alternative or safe-haven asset, has failed its first and most-important test. The cryptocurrency market as whole is currently worth around $ 181 billion, while Bitcoin’s market dominance is around 65%, giving it a market capitalization of just over $118.2 billion. This capitalization would make it the 24th largest company in the Dow Jones, just above American Express. While the uses of blockchain technology are widespread and growing and over time may underpin the price of Bitcoin, at the present time, Bitcoin is just another tradeable asset with no safe-haven value, especially when crypto trading markets like Bitcoin Code turn sour.


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