Standard Chartered Predicts The Bitcoin Price Might Plunge To $50K On BTC ETF Outflows, Macro Outlook

Updated: 02 May 2024

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Standard Chartered said the Bitcoin price could drop to the $50K-$52K range as outflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue amid an uncertain macro outlook.

Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 yesterday, and it was trading at around $57,700 as of 04:49 a.m. EST.

While speaking to The Block, the head of digital assets and forex research at Standard Chartered Bank, Geoffrey Kendrick, said this drop coincides with increasing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs.

On May 1, total net flows from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $564 million after five consecutive days of outflows.

🚨 #Bitcoin ETFs Update (May 1)

Fidelity Sells 3,300 BTC
GBTC Sells 2,900 BTC
ARK Sells 1,700 BTC
Blackrock Sells 600 BTC

Total Net Flows from all ETFs -9,750 #Bitcoin ($564M) pic.twitter.com/sRl6Jfz4JC

— Thomas | heyapollo.com (@thomas_fahrer) May 2, 2024

Kendrick noted that Bitcoin was trading below the average price of $58,000 at which investors purchased the ETFs. Therefore, over half of all spot ETF positions were under the water, with some facing the risk of liquidation.

He also adds that the recently launched Hong Kong spot ETFs were doing little to sway market sentiment. While the crypto community has decried the low turnover volumes, Standard Chartered says the net asset position for these new ETFs was commendable.

Bitcoin Price Also Impacted By Macro Outlook

The investment bank also said that Bitcoin’s performance relies on broader macroeconomic trends.

Inflation data in the US remains strong, and the Federal Reserve said on May 1 that interest rates will remain unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%.

The tighter policy than had been anticipate by markets has affected risk assets like crypto.

“Liquidity matters when it matters, but with a backdrop of strong U.S. inflation data and less likelihood of Fed rate cuts, it matters at the moment,” Kendrick said. “Re-enter BTC in the $50-52k range or if US CPI on the 15th is friendly.”

Just last month, Standard Chartered doubled down in its Bitcoin prediction, saying it could hit $150,000 by the end of the year.