Mike Novogratz Predicts Imminent Approval of Bitcoin ETF

Updated: 09 August 2023

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As the US crypto market is on pins and needles about approving the first Bitcoin ETF, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated it is imminent and may be approved sooner than expected.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF May Be Approved Soon

In a Galaxy earnings call with investors, Novogratz told investors that according to sources in Blackrock and Invesco, the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently applied for with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would be approved in around four to six months.

According to "contacts" from inside BlackRock and Invesco spot Bitcoin ETF approval a matter of "when, not if" likely in "four to six months" — Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz on earnings call this morning pic.twitter.com/TIhHC7xnHI

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 8, 2023

“It’s a big, big deal. It’s a big deal because both our contacts, from the Invesco side and the BlackRock side, get you to think that this is a question of when, not if — that the outside window is probably six months,” Novogratz said.

He argued that it was not about whether the SEC would approve. Instead, Novogratz seemed more confident that the approval would be granted, and it was just a matter of time.

“This is probably […] four to six months if you had to put a ‘pin the tail on the donkey’ on it, that the SEC will approve a Bitcoin ETF.”

This revelation follows the applications for ETFs backed by actual Bitcoin instead of Bitcoin futures made by Blackrock, WisdomTree, and other asset managers. Galaxy Digital also refiled its application in the same period in collaboration with Invesco, which sponsors the filing.

According to the Galaxy Digital CEO, the applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs by major companies like BlackRock have started to change institutional investors’ perceptions of the leading cryptocurrency.

The most prominent example of the transition is BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who 2017 claimed that Bitcoin was only a “speculative investment”. However, years later, he changed his mind, potentially leading the asset management industry in adopting the big crypto.

Given several applications for the same spot Bitcoin ETF, Novogratz stated that the asset managers would be fighting to get a hold of the market share once the SEC approves the applications. He said:

“The news of both BlackRock filing ETF and quite frankly, Invesco plus Galaxy, we’re going to fight like cats and dogs to win market share there once it gets approved.”

To support Novogratz’s revelation and belief, Chris Ferraro, president of Galaxy Digital, said he wouldn’t be shocked if the SEC approves a prospective Bitcoin ETF to avoid being branded as “obstructionist.”

“I think that’s where the potential ETF approval comes in saying, hey, you can’t call us anti-crypto. We just approved an ETF,” Ferraro said. “And so we’re hoping that that’s the same for our filing,” he added.

Legal Precedent and Analyst Speculation

Interestingly, crypto analysts believe the approval could be granted sooner than the projected six months. These analysts base their speculation on how the judge presiding over Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC rules.

"If the SEC loses its case against @Grayscale, as we expect, the path of least resistance would be a wave of simultaneous approvals for all spot #Bitcoin ETF applicants — including Grayscale and the other eight active filings." @NYCStein in @Bloomberg today. Cc @EricBalchunas… pic.twitter.com/k72W6Ek7RK

— Craig Salm (@CraigSalm) August 2, 2023

The lawsuit was filed last year when Grayscale sued the SEC for rejecting its application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF. If the judge grants the win to Grayscale, analysts believe it will streamline the application and deliberation process, increasing the chance of a sooner approval, let alone approval.

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