Bitcoin has been relatively stable within the $8700 range as of late, but it’s slowly becoming clear that a massive shift will happen in due time. The majority speculates that this will become a bullish run for the world’s oldest cryptocurrency, the block reward halving having historically brought massive bull runs. The halving is due in May, but several key figures have started to speculate whether or not the retail market will react as it had during the past two halvings. Some say it might take a whole other tone in its shift.
Two Opposing Ideologies
With this debate in mind, there are two significant schools of thought: The prominent school claims that it will be business as usual, and the bull run will happen as expected. The other school of thought argues that the Bitcoin market has matured to such a point that it won’t fall into a random euphoria due to a decrease in natural supply. After all, there are many Bitcoins in circulation as is.
Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me
Jimmy Song, a prominent influencer and educator of bitcoin, has speculated that the markets would have learned from the bullish charges that happened in 2013 and 2017. Both these massive market rises and subsequent collapses have been a result of the bull runs that occurred after a halving. Through a short statement on Twitter, Song speculated that the trading would react differently from the last two halvings, in particular, the retail side.
The next round of retail will behave differently than the last round of retail. There are too many "I got burned" stories from the last go-around.
— Jimmy Song (송재준) (@jimmysong) January 16, 2020
The implication he gave, is one of the various investors of the Bitcoin industry having already learned their harsh lessons due to being burned in a wrong way last time. The issue doesn’t come from the massive bull run, where significant profits can be made, but the people at the top of the rise, tumble the hardest when the market inevitably crashes. The Bitcoin market should strive for stability in its function, not go up and down like a stunt pilot.
Many New Investors, Never Fooled Once
As an opposition, the CEO of Spaceshift, Erik Voorhees, believes the market will act like it’s always acted in this position, perhaps just with higher stakes as the bitcoin’s relative price before a halving always seems to rise. He reasons that there are still new investors coming into the Bitcoin industry.
I thought the same after the Bitcoin bubble of 2013 and the Gox calamity. But it was not the case. The thing about new people is that they’re new
— Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees) January 16, 2020
Thus he responded to Song’s tweet as such. He further reasoned that the market is keen on chasing quick gains, much to its own detriment.
He even agreed with Song, stating that he started to think that the market would stabilize after 2013’s collapse and the Gox crisis. His reasoning is simple: “The thing about new people is that they’re new.”