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Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a new all-time high in November next year and Binance is set to lose its ranking as the world’s biggest crypto exchange, says fund manager VanEck.
“After a combative election that saw Donald Trump win 290 electoral votes and regain the Presidency, raising optimism that the SEC’s hostile regulatory approach will be dismantled, we think the Bitcoin price will reach an all-time high on November 9th, exactly 3 years to the day from its last all-time high,” the fund manager said in a blog post on Dec. 7.
A potential catalyst for BTC’s anticipated surge could be the $2.4 billion that the asset manager expects will enter the cryptocurrency market via crytpo ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in the first quarter of 2024.
Binance Dethroned As Top Crypto Exchange
It also predicted that Binance will be dethroned next year as the world’s biggest crypto exchange by volume. That is in large part because it is “now facing a 3-year DOJ colonoscopy,” it said, referring to the exchange’s $4.3 billion settlement with the US Department of Justice under which it agreed to an independent compliance monitor in the US for three years.
Binance’s legal woes in the US gave Coinbase the opportunity to “gain share and surpass $1B/day volume, up from ~$200M/day in November 2023,” VanEck said. It sees OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget emerging as well-funded competitors with the potential to grab the top spot.
Bitcoin Halving Will Have Little Impact as Funds Begin to Flow In
VanEck also predicts that the fourth, and much-hyped Bitcoin halving will be something of a non-event with “minimal drama.” Although mining rewards will be cut in half with the halving around April 2024, VanEck says “the public markets will see little distress thanks to much-improved balance sheets among listed miners, who currently control a record % global hash rate (~25%).”
VanEck believes that a selloff could ensue in the weeks after the halving as “the market digests the additional selling pressure from unprofitable miners.”
Following this potential offload of BTC holdings, VanEck expects BTC to rise above $48K. This price target coincides with “the neckline of the head-and-shoulder pattern completed in April 2022, “ according to the post. The asset manager also revealed that the Bitcoin price is “unlikely” to drop below $30K next year.
VanEck 🤝 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024
Prediction #1. The US recession will finally arrive, but so will the first spot #Bitcoin ETFs. Over $2.4B may flow into these ETFs in Q1 2024 to support Bitcoin’s price.
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) December 7, 2023
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