Bitcoin’s performance this week was unexpected, to say the least. Industry insiders were gearing up to celebrate the leading cryptocurrency hitting another all-time high, but were instead shocked to see it plunge.
With the reality on the ground, Mark Mobius, an investment expert, has criticized those who dwell significantly on market analysis and forecasts.
No Reliable Data for Forecasts
Mobius is a financial expert who oversees Mobius Capital Partners LLP, a London-based asset management firm that focuses on emerging markets. Speaking with the London Financial News, he said it was worthless analyzing Bitcoin and its price because the asset doesn’t follow any pattern.
Comparing the asset to a poker game, Mobius explained that Bitcoin’s price is susceptible to changes from speculations and rumors. He argued that most price predictions aren’t based on reliable information. According to Mobius, the forecast models applicable to other asset classes won’t work with it.
Not So Unpredictable After All
In a way, Mobius is right. Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset, and much of its price predictions tend to get tied to peoples’ views of it. The asset can also be pretty unpredictable.
This year, many were ready for a market rout when the coronavirus came along. Just like every asset, Bitcoin dove mid-March and hit the mid-$3,000s. However, it bounced back less than two weeks later and was already trading in the plus-$5,000 region.
Another example is the current market position. Bitcoin gained significantly over the past week and was ready to cross the $19,700 mark for the first time since the height of the 2017 bull run. However, despite hitting as high as $19,400 on Wednesday, the asset has pushed back since and is struggling to maintain the $17,000 price peg.
However, his assertion that Bitcoin’s price isn’t tied to any reliable metric is quite faulty. There have been several identifiable factors that have led to this year’s rally. From improved adoption from millennials to institutional appeal and acceptance from top payment processor PayPal, Bitcoin has proven to be functional as both a reliable payment method and a hedge against market uncertainty. As a result, its price has appreciated.
An increase in exposure leads to greater adoption. Eventually, Bitcoin’s price will appreciate, possibly leading to more investors. Bitcoin might remain as unpredictable as ever, but the asset has shown a penchant for conforming to some norms.
Even with the asset’s well-documented volatility, many have continued to compare it with others. Bitcoin gets steady comparisons with stocks, oil, government bonds, and gold. It has managed to deliver higher returns than other assets this year.