Bitcoin May Drop Below $60K This Week On Middle East Tensions, But It's A Buy As Trump's Odds Rise: Standard Chartered

Bitcoin May Drop Below $60K This Week On Middle East Tensions, But It’s A Buy As Trump’s Odds Rise: Standard Chartered

Updated: 03 October 2024

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Rising tensions in the Middle East may push Bitcoin below $60K before this weekend, presenting a buying opportunity for investors due to Donald Trump’s rising chances of winning the US election, Standard Chartered said.

“Risk concerns related to the Middle East seem destined to push bitcoin below $60,000 before the weekend,” said Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, in a research note.

He added that $80,000 call options and the “circularity vis-à-vis Trump probabilities” suggest this dip “should be bought into.”

Middle East Conflict Might Boost Bitcoin’s Post-Election Outlook

Kendrick noted that Trump’s Polymarket odds of winning the election have risen by 1%, while his political rival and Vice President Kamala Harris has seen her chances drop by an equal amount on the decentralized betting platform. Bettors now put the odds of a Harris victory at 49%, while Trump’s chances of victory stand at 50%.

The Standard Chartered analyst said that the conflict in the Middle East could end up having a positive impact on the leading crypto’s “post-election outlook.” Although the geopolitical concerns might push Bitcoin’s price down in the short term, these same concerns are boosting Trump’s election odds.

A Trump victory is considered favorable for the crypto market due to the former president’s pro-crypto stance. In addition to making numerous bullish statements at this year’s Bitcoin 2024 conference, he also launched his decentralized finance (DeFi) platform, World Liberty Financial.

Crypto insiders are buzzing about @WorldLibertyFi. This isn’t just another project—it’s the future of finance.

— WLFI (@worldlibertyfi) October 2, 2024

A Harris Victory Could Lead To An Initial Drop In Prices

Many believe a Harris victory could be bearish for the digital asset industry. That is because investors anticipate a tougher regulatory environment if the Democratic candidate wins.

Kendrick said that the market might experience “an initial price decline” if Harris takes the White House. He added, however, that investors will likely buy into any price drops “as the market recognizes that progress on the regulatory front will still be forthcoming.”