Spot Ethereum ETF Approval May Be Delayed Until 2026 On “Political Call” By Gary Gensler, TD Cowen Says

Updated: 30 January 2024

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A spot Ethereum ETF (exchange-traded fund) may not be approved in the U.S. until late 2025 or early 2026, said investment bank TD Cowen.

“We believe there is no upside for SEC Chair Gary Gensler to approve a spot Ethereum ETF given how upset progressive Democrats were over the agency’s approval of a spot bitcoin ETF earlier this month, ” said TD Cowen Washington Research Group analysts led by Jaret Seiberg in a Jan. 29 note. “This is a political call.”

Gary Gensler Needs The Support Of Progressives

In order to push his agenda in the next election year, Gensler needs the support of progressive democrats, noted TD Cowen. This remains true even if the SEC Chair pursues a different role as Treasury secretary in the event Joe Biden wins a second term, said the bank.

“There is no reason to provoke a needless fight,” the analysts said. “We say needless, as our view remains that Gensler is in no hurry to approve an Ethereum ETF as he would first like more experience with the performance of the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs.“

This is “consistent with his broader approach to crypto, which is to move incrementally and slowly when it comes to providing regulatory approvals or clarity, ” the bank added.

Investment Giants’ Differing Timelines For A Spot Ethereum ETF

Wall Street banking giant JPMorgan echoes TD Cowen’s sentiment that a spot Ethereum ETF will not be approved any time soon. Earlier this month, it said there is only a 50% chance that these ETFs will be approved by May this year.

“For the SEC to approve spot Ethereum ETFs in May, it would need to classify Ethereum as a commodity (similar to Bitcoin) rather than a security,” said JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

The JPMorgan analyst believes that this is “far from given.”

When are we getting a Spot $ETH ETF? @ARKInvest’s President and COO Tom Staudt says “soon.”

Full discussion: https://t.co/hbeY4TTr4f https://t.co/gjZghlre4M pic.twitter.com/NWNOtldp1T

— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) January 24, 2024