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Solana ETF products in the US may trigger an almost 9x surge in the SOL price, but investors are unlikely to see XRP and Cardano ETFs, according to market maker GSR.
Solana now ranks among the “Big Three” cryptos, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum, and as such it’s only a matter of time before a Solana ETF debuts in the market, GSR said in a June 27 report entitled ”Is Solana Next?”
The report coincided with news that fund management giant VanEck had become the first asset manager to file for a spot Solana ETF in the US.
SOL Might 9x On Spot ETF Approval
In its optimistic “blue sky” scenario, the SOL price will soar 8.9x on the approval of a spot Solana ETF and take 14% of the inflows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have received since launching in January.
Its ”baseline” scenario sees spot SOL ETF products taking a 5% share of Bitcoin ETF flows and pushing up the SOL price 3.4x, while its bear case sees Solana ETFs grabbing a 2% share from Bitcoin ETFs and pushing up the SOL price 1.4x.
The report dismissed arguments that a spot SOL ETF would not launch soon because of the lack of an active futures market.
GSR argued that the crypto regulatory framework could change soon given campaign promises by presidential hopeful Donald Trump. It also believes that the Biden administration is softening its stance towards the crypto industry.
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared a similar sentiment, saying that a change in the SEC leadership under a Trump administration would change the outlook.
The knee jerk reaction here is 'oh this will never be approved bc there aren't Solana futures' agree but.. if change at POTUS i think anything poss. Just imagine Hester Peirce (or someone like that) running the SEC..
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) June 27, 2024
XRP, Cardano Will Not Get Spot ETFs
GSR believes that decentralization and demand are the two factors that will determine whether cryptos are able to gain approval for ETFs, and on those counts it ruled out ADA, XRP, Near Protocol (NEAR), Avalanche (AVAX), and Aptos (APT).
Based on its scoreboard, NEAR is the next most likely crypto after Solana to be able to launch an ETF product with a neutral chance.
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