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Lawyer Jeremy Hogan said in an X thread on Oct. 21 that the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple Labs and its token, XRP, is effectively over.
“For all Intents and Purposes the Ripple v. SEC case is over,” he tweeted on X. ”I have now done the MATH and, taking into account the chance of a win on appeal, surviving more litigation, and still being able to maintain the lawsuit against Ripple into 2026: The chance of the SEC winning is exactly 2.367%. Same odds as the Jets winning the Super Bowl!”
Hogan’s post comes after the SEC dropped charges against Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple’s CEO, and executive chair Chris Larsen last week, helping buoy sentiment in crypto markets . Ripple called the U-turn a ”stunning capitulation” by the regulator.
Case Again Ripple, XRP Long And Difficult
Hogan says the regulator has, in theory, about a 14% chance of winning an appeal if it files one. But the path to victory overall would be long and difficult.
Computing its chance of winning an appeal, surviving more litigation, and still being able to maintain the lawsuit against Ripple into 2026, Hogan says its final chance of success drops to just a little more than 2%.
Luckily, we have statistics which tell us!
As you see below, the SEC has a 14.2% chance of winning on appeal. 14.2%.
And I think it's fair to say that the manner in which the Judge wrote her opinion (very fact based), at a minimum, does not increase that chance for the SEC. pic.twitter.com/LTsOU5eEgE
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 21, 2023
The SEC brought its lawsuit against Ripple and its executives in December 2020, when they were accused of selling unregistered securities to generate a profit of more than $1.3 billion.
Judge Analisa Torres gave Ripple a partial victory in the case against the SEC in July, concluding that XRP is not a security when sold to the public. But she also ruled that XRP is a security when sold to institutional investors.
Hogan said important hearings will be held in the coming months, and “deciding a judgment of up to $770 million is of course important,” he said. But he added that the time for hand wringing over the case is done.
“Unlike on TV, a lot of legal cases end with a whimper and drag on for a year after the main issues have been locked in,” he said. “And I think that’s what we will see here.”
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