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Floor model incorrectly predicts Bitcoin will hit $98K in November

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Bitcoin illustration

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The floor model developed by Plan B has proven to be wrong about the price Bitcoin would achieve by the end of November.

By the end of November, Bitcoin was trading at monthly lows of below $60K. The price was not what the floor model had predicted. This was the only wrong prediction that the model has made so far.

Plan B’s floor model

Plan B is a popular analyst in the crypto sector. The floor model is not the only major analytics model he is known for, as he has also worked on the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, which is highly popular, and the worst-case scenario model was published in July 2021.

The worst-case scenario model is also known as the floor model. It was developed in July this year.

Plan B is known for predicting some of the best case scenarios using the 200-day moving average. For example, it correctly predicted that Bitcoin will close in August at $47,000 and September at $43,000. The October price was slightly correct, as Bitcoin reached $61,000 out of the predicted $63,000.

The model had predicted that Bitcoin would close November at $98,000, but this was not the case. The model was far off the margin, as Bitcoin closed below $60,000. Plan B admitted to the failure of the model to reach the targeted price in November after predicting the previous months correctly.

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The Stock-to-flow model still works

The floor model is different from the stock-to-flow model that was also developed by Plan B. This model classified stock as the size of Bitcoin reserves and flow as the number of new Bitcoins entering the market.

The original version of this model predicted that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 by the end of 2021. The updated version of this model predicts that Bitcoin will reach $288,000 by 2024.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at around $56,000, but Plan B believed that the stock-to-flow model is still on track and that Bitcoin will still hit a price of $100,000. However, this is highly unlikely to be achieved by the end of the year because Bitcoin needs an over 66% jump to reach $100,000 by December 31.

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