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Bitcoin’s recent rise above $65K is being driven by the increasing odds of a Donald Trump election victory, according to analysts at Bernstein.
“We believe the recent bitcoin strength is being driven by the return of bitcoin’s correlation to Trump’s election odds,” Bernstein analysts said in an Oct. 15 note.
Donald Trump The Favorite To Win The Election As MSTR Seen As A Corporate BTC Index
Former US President Trump’s odds of winning the election currently stand at 56.5% on the decentralized betting platform, Polymarket. Meanwhile, his political rival and current US Vice President Kamala Harris has a 43% chance, according to bettors on the platform. Trump also has the lead in five of the six swing states.
The US-regulated Kalshi shows that Trump leads Harris as well. Odds in favor of Trump currently stand at 55% after a 2% increase, while bets for Harris place her chances at 45% following a 1% decrease.
“We believe the bitcoin market strength is recent and reflective of the current spike in Trump odds,” the Bernstein analysts wrote.
Donald Trump Polling Odds Impact Crypto Fund Flows
Trump’s rising odds have also had a positive impact on crypto fund flows in the last week, according to CoinShares. During the week from Oct. 5-11, digital asset investment products posted inflows of $407 million.
📈 Digital asset investment products saw inflows of US$407m, #Bitcoin saw inflows totalling US$419m while blockchain equity ETFs saw one of the largest weekly inflows of the year, totalling US$34m.
Get our insights in our full report: https://t.co/3Bz2pA1HOQ pic.twitter.com/kvkSHAqIHo
— CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) October 14, 2024
CoinShares’ head of research James Butterfill believes BTC’s rise is not linked to “better-than-expected-economic-data.” Instead, the increase in pro-crypto Republican Trump’s odds of becoming president has resulted in an “immediate boost in inflows and prices.”
MSTR Price Also A Leading Indicator For Bitcoin
The Bernstein analysts also believe that MicroStrategy’s MSTR stock price is like a leading indicator for the king of cryptos. This is after the firm has accumulated 252,220 Bitcoins since 2020, and has outperformed the flagship crypto this year.
Since the start of 2024, MSTR has gained 191%, over three times more than the 55% increase BTC saw during the same period.
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