Analyst Who Foresaw Bitcoin's 2018 Collapse Sees A 25% Probability Its Bull Run Is Over

Analyst Who Foresaw Bitcoin’s 2018 Collapse Sees A 25% Probability Its Bull Run Is Over

Updated: 29 April 2024

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Peter Brandt, a veteran analyst who predicted Bitcoin’s 2018 collapse, said that one metric shows the market leader’s bull run is over.

“The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years,” Brandt said in an Apr. 26 blog post.

Referring to a statistical concept called Exponential Decay, the analyst said that each bull cycle has been 80% less than its predecessor in terms of the growth gained.

Bitcoin Might Have Already Reached This Cycle’s Top

When it comes to the current cycle, Brandt believes BTC will soar around 80% of the 22X growth the leading crypto posted during the previous cycle between 2018 and 2021.

With the low for the current cycle at $15,473, Brandt projects a peak of $72,723. This is just under the $73,750.07 all-time high (ATH) BTC achieved on Mar. 14, which has prompted Brandt to speculate that the market leader’s bull run might be over.

Brandt personally gives the probability of such an outcome a 25% likelihood, but urged investors to pay attention to the short-term “real” threat to a bull run from Exponential Decay.

If the market leader has reached its top for the latest cycle, the crypto could undergo a sharp correction, he said. BTC might “decline back to the mid-$30s, or the 2021 lows,” Brandt said.

This potential retracement would be the “most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term point of view,” he added.

Brandt Had Predicted BTC Would Hit $200K

Brand had a made a bullish prediction for the king of cryptos in February.

Bitcoin Update
With the thrust above the upper boundary of the 15-month channel, the target for the current bull market cycle scheduled to end in Aug/Sep 2025 is being raised from $120,000 to $200,000. $BTC
A close below last week's low will nullify this interpretation pic.twitter.com/19ZXpAQW0v

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) February 27, 2024

Following a “thrust above the upper boundary” of a 15-month channel, he estimated that BTC’s bull run would carry on until around August 2025. He predicted that Bitcoin could reach a high of $200k, an increase from his earlier target of $120k.