Crypto Winter May Be Over, Morgan Stanley Says

Updated: 19 October 2023

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There are signs that the crypto winter may be coming to an end and that spring will soon break for digital assets, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management says.

It’s optimism is founded in a number of historical patterns, most notably the likelihood of a Bitcoin halving around April next year, said analyst Denny Galindo in an Oct. 17 post on its website.

“Historically, most of bitcoin’s gains come directly after a halving event that occurs every four years,” he said. “By intentionally limiting the supply of new bitcoin, the shortage caused by the halving can affect the price of bitcoin to potentially spur a bull run.”

Is the crypto winter finally thawing?

According to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, there are signs that the long crypto winter may be coming to an end.

This could mean that a crypto spring is on the horizon, bringing with it a new era of growth and opportunity for the…

— Profit Sensor (@ProfitSensor) October 19, 2023

Halving events have spurred three previous bull runs for Bitcoin since its inception in 2011, each lasting 12 to 18 months, he said.

The halving event creates scarcity so that Bitcoins can maintain their value. Every four years, the number of bitcoins created every 10 minutes is cut in half.

Crypto Winter is Ending

The crypto market has been in winter since at least the first half of last year, when prices crashed following the collapse of TerraUSD and LUNA.

Typically, such winters last 12 to 15 months based on historical patterns, signalling that spring may be coming soon, Galindo said.

Previous winters have seen Bitcoin fall by about 83% from its earlier highs, and by November last year it had plunged by almost 77%, from a high of $68,000 in November 2021 to a low of about $16,000 in November last year.

Another indicator of what lies ahead is how much Bitcoin has recovered from its winter low. A 50% increase is typically ”a good sign that the trough has been achieved,” says Galindo. Bitcoin has rallied by more than 77% since its 2022 low and by more than 70% this year.

“Based on current data, signs indicate that crypto winter may be in the past and that crypto spring is likely on the horizon,” Galindo said

A Bitcoin bull run is coming within the next few months.

Spot Bitcoin ETF final deadline within 83 days.

Bitcoin Halving within 162 days. pic.twitter.com/OeYb1ZtgV7

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) October 19, 2023