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Spot Ether ETF (exchange-traded fund) applications will be rejected by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May, said Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
The SEC’s lack of engagement with applicants, unlike with firms that filed for spot Bitcoin ETFs last year, is behind the pessimistic prediction.
“My cautiously optimistic attitude for ETH ETFs has changed from recent months,” said Seyffart in a March 19 post on X. “We now believe these will ultimately be denied. The SEC hasn’t engaged with issuers on Ethereum specifics. Exact opposite of #Bitcoin ETFs this fall.”
Industry Titans Looking To Launch Spot Ether ETFs
There are currently seven issuers looking to establish Ether-focused funds. Asset management giants BlackRock, Grayscale, Fidelity, Invesco with Galaxy, VanEck, 21Shares with ARK, and Hashdex have all filed applications with US regulators.
My cautiously optimistic attitude for ETH ETFs has changed from recent months. We now believe these will ultimately be denied May 23rd for this round. The SEC hasn't engaged with issuers on Ethereum specifics. Exact opposite of #Bitcoin ETFs this fall. https://t.co/TyAzAOrAC5
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) March 19, 2024
Not All Hope Is Lost
Not everyone is so pessimistic. Standard Chartered still believes the regulator will approve spot ether ETFs in May, triggering inflows into ETH of $15 to $25 billion within the first 12 months after approval.
ETH could then climb to $8,000 this year and $14,000 in 2025, said the bank’s head of forex and crypto research, Geoffrey Kendrick, in a Mar. 18 note.
Ethereum traded at $3,356 as of 11.29 a.m. EST.
Should ETH ETFs be approved, Kendrick estimates between $15-$25 billion will flow into ETH within the first 12 months.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on Mar. 11 that the odds of an ETH ETF gaining approval in May had fallen to 35%.
“Note: 35% isn’t 0%,” he said. “Still poss, and and long-term we think it will happen.”
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