DKeX ranked third among US prediction market exchanges for the week ended October 18, with $1.04 billion in notional volume, Aldrin Research figures show. DraftKings’ in-house exchange held a 3.57% market share, up from 2.33% three weeks earlier.
Chief executive Jason Robins claimed the No. 3 position on stage at the NEXTPredict Summit in New York, in a question-and-answer session with CNBC’s Contessa Brewer. Kalshi held first place and Polymarket a relatively distant second in notional volume on those figures. The rank covers the week ended October 18; weekly rankings fluctuate, and Aldrin Research’s full ranking table did not accompany the figures.
The climb matters for the two incumbents because of where the volume is coming from. DraftKings is one of the two largest online sportsbooks in the US, and DKeX is an in-house exchange rather than a partner platform, so the company keeps the full economics of every contract traded. Robins said DraftKings has been pleasantly surprised by growth in non-sports markets, including financial contracts, which would remain available even if courts strike down sports event contracts.
DraftKings’ footprint is deliberately uneven. DraftKings Predictions operates in 38 states, with the full suite of event contracts in 18, including California, Florida and Texas. In states where the company books traditional sports bets, such as Colorado, New York and Pennsylvania, it offers only financial event contracts. Robins said the alternative would have left the company’s gaming licenses under threat, and that DraftKings is positioned to do well regardless of how the legal process on sports event contracts turns out, potentially reaching the US Supreme Court.
That hedging separates DraftKings from the incumbents. Robins said rival prediction market firms have staked much more on the legal outcome than DraftKings has. Kalshi has drawn CFTC scrutiny of its own trading activity, and Polymarket’s markets have been the subject of at least three CFTC insider-trading probes.
The rise has not lifted DraftKings’ stock. Robins said public markets are averse to the uncertainty around the federally regulated exchange business; the company’s shares have reportedly fallen more than 40% this year.
Robins also addressed a live legal dispute in Florida, where the Seminole Tribe sued DraftKings and Robins in Broward County Circuit Court in October, claiming the company’s prediction markets and Pick6 product operate as illegal, unlicensed sportsbooks. Robins said it was interesting that DraftKings was singled out, since other prediction market operators operate in Florida, and said he could not speak to why.
