{"id":588751,"date":"2024-10-18T11:26:41","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T11:26:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insidebitcoins.com\/?p=588751"},"modified":"2024-10-18T11:26:41","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T11:26:41","slug":"trump-leads-polymarket-presidential-odds-with-a-massive-26m-bet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insidebitcoins.com\/news\/trump-leads-polymarket-presidential-odds-with-a-massive-26m-bet","title":{"rendered":"Trump Leads Polymarket Presidential Odds with a Massive $26M Bet"},"content":{"rendered":"

While conventional polls show the upcoming November election to be a close call, Polymarket, a prediction platform, suggests a different outcome. A total of $26 million in bets, potentially from a single source, have tipped the odds in favor of Donald Trump, the GOP candidate, giving him a significant lead over his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris.<\/p>\n

A Shift in Polymarket’s Odds: Trump Takes the Lead<\/h3>\n

Polymarket’s odds now reflect Trump’s commanding position, thanks to the substantial $26 million wager placed across four accounts. As of now, Trump holds a 59.7% chance of reelection, while Harris trails with a 40.3% probability. This shift in the platform’s odds is a marked change, especially given that Polymarket’s predictions had shown a much tighter race between the two candidates. The significant shift occurred after October 5, as Harris’s standing began to decline.<\/p>\n

It’s important to note that Polymarket’s predictions contradict most traditional pollsters, who continue to show Harris as the favorite with a 53% chance of winning. However, the betting patterns on Polymarket have shown a clear preference for Trump, largely driven by the large wagers made in his favor.<\/p>\n

Trump Gains Powerful Backing<\/h3>\n

A key factor contributing to Trump’s momentum is the support he’s receiving from influential figures and media outlets. Among his high-profile backers is Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest individual and a controversial figure in the tech world. Additionally, Trump has gained the endorsement of the Las Vegas Review-Journal<\/em>, a major newspaper in Nevada, a critical swing state where Trump also leads in conventional polls.<\/p>\n

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Polymarket<\/a>, unlike traditional polls, determines its odds based on betting volume rather than direct voter preferences. This is significant because the $26 million was placed over a short two-week period, with no counter-bets of comparable size. This lopsided betting has significantly skewed the platform’s odds, pushing Trump ahead in the race for the White House.<\/p>\n

Questioning the Reliability of the Odds<\/h3>\n

While these odds might seem to signal a clear path to victory for Trump, it’s essential to approach them with caution. The sheer size of the $26 million bet raises questions about its origins and motives. According to investigations, the bets were likely made by a single entity using four separate accounts, though the source of the funds remains unknown.<\/p>\n

A Twitter user named @Domahhhh took an interest in this and conducted a deep dive into the betting patterns. He discovered that four accounts — Theo4<\/em>, Michie<\/em>, PrincessCaro<\/em>, and Fredi9999<\/em> — had all made deposits via the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange and placed sizable bets on Trump. Domahhhh was able to briefly contact the person behind the Fredi9999<\/em> account, but the conversation quickly soured, and the account holder blocked further communication.<\/p>\n

Who’s Behind the Bets?<\/h3>\n

Before the communication ended, Fredi9999<\/em> shared enough information for Domahhhh to conclude that he was dealing with a French trader who had previously lived in New York. Interestingly, this trader claimed not to be politically motivated but still believed Trump had a 75% chance of winning. This raises the question of whether the individual is a savvy trader with inside information or simply placing a high-risk bet based on personal beliefs.<\/p>\n

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A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.<\/p>\n

Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive… pic.twitter.com\/HYlZpUfk2k<\/a><\/p>\n

— Domer (@Domahhhh) October 16, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n