NEW YORK (InsideBitcoins) — Since July 2nd, the price of bitcoin has eroded 52% — from $655.66 to yesterday’s close of $313.51, according to the Winkdex. Is this a price struggling to find a new normal? A value not driven by a speculative bubble or of news-driven calamities such as Mt Gox, all of which motivated price movement from October 2013 through February 2014. But perhaps a price more reflective of a maturing growth rather than adolescent exuberance. A reality of growing mass adoption, regulation and public awareness rather than a price shootout — a Wild West brawl based on Reddit rumors and hobbyist enthusiasm.
Even news of increasing clarity from the NYDFS regarding the BitLicense proposal, as well as some love from superintendent Ben Lawsky, failed to motivate a price rally. Recent headline-making positive developments from the likes of Microsoft and Time Inc have inspired only brief rallies, if any price movement at all.
Some analysts have speculated that end of the year tax-loss selling could be a catalyst to a sagging value — but that wouldn’t explain a six-month trend. Actually, that downward slope so evident in the chart above can be traced all the way back to the peak in early January.
Still, for the most part, bitcoin insiders have been optimistic in their 12-month price forecasts. But then, for those with vested interests in the industry, hope springs eternal. Case in point: it’s not likely we’ll see the EOY 2014 $2000 price target of some giddy enthusiasts.
Perhaps a price in the $300s — or even $100s — is fair value for a leading-edge technology that mystifies the present-day consumer.